Demographics: Population Dynamics, Urban/Rural Population, Gender and Age Breakdown, and Youth Cohort

The Tubalars began to appear as separate people after 2000 due to their inclusion in the list of indigenous peoples of Russia.

n Russia, according to the 2020 All-Russian Population Census, there were 3,675 Tubalar people, including 1,782 men and 1,893 women.

Their population dynamics can be inferred from the three latest All-Russian population censuses only: 2002, 2010, and 2020 (in 2021, there was no available data).

According to the All-Russian Population Census of 2010, the total number of the Tubalars was 1.891, of which 1.590 were rural residents. Of these, 784 were men (49.3%) and 806 were women (50.7%). Of the total rural Tubalar population, 453 persons (28.5%) are below working age, 953 persons (59.9%) are of working age, and 184 (11.6%) are older than working age. The median age among the Tubalar is 33.2, and 33.4 among the rural population.

Table 1. Number of the Tubalars according to the census, 2002 and 2010

Vasily Nikolaev attributes such an abnormal increase in the population of the Tubalars to a change in the numerous ethnic identities. Those, who were previously counted as the Altaians, began to self-identify as the Tubalars and those born in an interethnic family changed their nationality from Russian to the local. The third factor accounting for the population growth is a change of ethnicity by court decision. As a rule, such cases are brought before the court by the people whose ethnicity was previously indicated, for example, on a birth certificate, as Altai or Russian. In case of a favorable decision, the applicant, being now a member of a minority, becomes eligible for several state benefits.

Most often, people use this measure to be able to retire earlier: at 50 for women and 55 for men. The data presented in the table shows that the significant increase in population during the intercensal period is unlikely to be due to natural growth but rather to a change in identity.

The increase in the number of Tubalars in the Maiminsky district from 19 in 2002 to 180 in 2010 can be explained, in addition to the factors mentioned above, by the resettlement of the Tubalars from the Choysky and Turachaksky districts to this municipality.

The negative growth in the Turachak and Choy districts indicated in the table can be further proof of this.

The attractiveness of the Maiminsky district can be explained by several socio-economic factors: a better chance of employment ranking high among them coupled with greater accessibility to social and medical services, preschool, school, vocational, and higher education. The villages of the Maiminsky district are mainly located near the capital of the republic and are connected with it by regular bus routes.

Based on the results of the All-Russian Population Census of 2020 (2021), one should expect an increase in the number of Tubalars mainly from the formal court-ordered changes of ethnic identity when people officially join the minority of the Altai Republic and the Russian Federation. The overall minor increase in the number of Tubalars can be the result of the natural increase in the population of the region.